Aker ASA årsrapport 2022
Konsernsjefens brev
10
feet firmly planted in conventional energy
production that is still required over the
medium term; we are deploying
technology to reduce our climate footprint
and improve efficiency; and, lastly, we are
continuing to invest in and build
technology and infrastructure for lower
emissions energy production for the long
term. Each carrying risks – and
opportunities for value creation. While
Aker’s share price has not escaped the
global sentiment in 2022 and total
shareholder return decreased 9 percent
for the year,
we are coupling our strong
industrial foundation with technologies,
partnerships, and new opportunities for
In conventional energy production Aker’s
position is, and will continue to be,
through our E&P company, Aker BP.
Aker
BP had a remarkable and transformational
year,
recording an operating revenue of
USD 13 billion for 2022 and contributing
USD 268 million in upstream cash to Aker.
Following the successful Lundin
integration, Aker BP has doubled its
production, reduced its unit cost, and
consolidated its position as a global leader
with low carbon oil and gas production.
The company has a substantial resource
base, and shortly before year-end, it
submitted ten Plans for Development and
Operation (PDOs) for projects with total
recoverable resources of 730 mmboe. The
company’s share
of the investments is
estimated to USD 19 billion, with an
average break-even oil price estimated at
USD 35-40 per barrel. Aker BP is truly
building an E&P company of the future. Its
world-class team has worked relentlessly
to reduce emissions, which today stands at
less than one third of the average in the
global industry, and below the average for
operators on the Norwegian Continental
Shelf (NCS). It’s an important contributor
to the fact that Norwegian oil and gas
production now has lower emissions than
all other oil production in the world.
Building this kind of resilience requires
long-term strategic thinking, which is a key
concern for Aker across the portfolio. It’s
an example of how focusing on increased
efficiency, investing in digitalization, and
ensuring best-in-class operations makes
us more robust as we tackle the Energy
Trilemma.
As the geopolitical situation of
2022 has shown, the industries to which
we are exposed continuously contend with
issues that are largely outside of our
control. One such issue is disrupted supply
chains which have been mired in multiple
bottlenecks. It requires rigorous planning –
and contingency planning. Although the
bottlenecks are gradually easing, current
prices are higher than what inflation can
justify. Many suppliers are basing their
pricing on historical data that is now
outdated. For Aker BP,
which is working
on developing a record high number of
projects, this is a key priority both in
procurement and follow up of its
suppliers. Through active ownership, Aker
is focused on maintaining capital
discipline, while optimizing dividend
payout and earnings growth.
Not surprisingly, the global oil and gas
industry’s profits surged in 2022 –
to
about USD 4 trillion, from an average of
USD 1.5 trillion in recent years, according
to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Into 2023, many companies are revising
their price forecasts to reflect the
increased demand for non-Russian
supplies. Moreover,
they are finding
themselves at a crossroad: how to create
strategies that maximize returns from high
energy prices while also investing in low
emissions industry. For Aker,
these
strategic considerations also come at a
time when Norway’s cementing its critical
role in European energy security.
In the
gas market, the roller coaster of 2022 led
to an annual average price that was six
times the 2017-2021 average. The
weaponization of natural gas following the
war was the biggest factor,
as Russia
curtailed exports to Europe, leading to
frantic efforts to replace the gas supplies
ahead of the anticipated cold winter.
Our
nation has played a critical role in
boosting gas deliveries to Europe,
supplying 33 percent of Germany’s
gas
needs in 2022 and replacing Russia as the
largest supplier.
Governments across the
EU began subsidizing energy bills to help
consumers and companies cope with
soaring cost, while ramping up efforts to
reduce gas consumption, focused on
filling its gas storage ahead of the cold
As discussions raged on price caps on
natural gas, protectionist measures, and
ensuring access to secure, affordable
energy,
questions arose on the right
balance between government involvement
and market forces. At Aker,
we believe
increased government intervention is the
right medicine, but only if administered
properly with the optimal dosage.
Domestic policies should look outward,
encourage long-term investments, and
strengthen ownership models and
industrial development. Fiscal regimes and
taxes are a competition between countries
where it is most attractive to invest. In
Norway, we have an enormous
opportunity to be in the front seat of a
new industrial era, but we need to
leverage our world-class public-private
cooperation model to succeed.
The value of our investments in Aker
Horizons, Aker’s investment company
within renewables and clean technology,
declined nearly NOK 9.4 billion in 2022.
The drop illustrates some of the current
challenges in the short term for the
renewable energy industry, which is still
mired by high risk, bottlenecks, and low
margins. It’s
partly a financial issue and
partly a structural discussion about longer-
term offtake for industries such as offshore
wind. Cost of capital is too high to
succeed at scale and longer term. Gone is
the sentiment of the last few decades,
marked by political stability, free trade,
affordable energy,
and liberalization – a
time where business has trumped politics.
Instead, politics is now trumping business.
Business models, including the oil and gas
industry, are built on precisely the